Subject: Glorious Contingency 1Greetings. Over the past couple of weeks Robert Wright has summarized
his case for the inevitability of the rise of an intelligent,
conscious, social species that achieves global dominance. In the
jargon of the trade of speculative philosophy of history, this is
what is known as "necessity." The counter to necessity is
contingency, the position that things did not have to be as they are.
Along these lines there is much interest, of late, in what is called
"counterfactual" history, better known as "what if" (as in "what if
Pickett's charge had succeeded?" or "what if Hitler had beaten the
Russians at Stalingrad?" or, for levity from an old Saturday Night
Live routine, "what if Napoleon had B-52 bombers?"). Niaal Ferguson's
book "Virtual History" is a wonderful volume of collected essays
dealing with a variety of what if scenarios. Bob Wright's approach is
strongly counterfactual in nature. He is saying "what if we rewound
the tape and played it back?" His answer is that we would appear
again and again.
Wright is putting a new twist (nonzero game theory) on an old
argument, most recently made in book form (and also targeting Stephen
Jay Gould as contingency enemy number one) in Dan Dennett's Darwin's
Dangerous Idea. What follows (and will follow) is a series of
excerpts from Chapter 10, "Glorious Contingency," from my new book
HOW WE BELIEVE: The Search for God in an Age of Science (W. H.
Freeman, www.howwebelieve.com). It presents a detailed refutation of
the strong necessity argument, while simultaneously presenting a
balanced theory of contingent-necessity. That is, sometimes
contingencies dominate (as Gould likes to emphasize), and sometimes
necessities dominate (as Dennett, and now Wright, like to emphasize).
But WHEN in historical sequences do one or the other dominate? THAT
is the critical question. Arguing that life is all necessity or all
contingency is like arguing that it is all nature or all nuture.
To get us started on this thread entitled "Glorious Contingency",
which draws on material from my book, I am posting a very brief
summary of my book and the table of contents. More will follow in
my next posting.
Any feedback, critical or otherwise, would be appreciated as we are
preparing another printing so I can make some changes, plus when we
do the paperback edition, I will write a new introduction to it
addressing criticisms and comments on the first edition.
Thank you for your consideration.
Michael Shermer
Publisher, Skeptic magazine
2761 N. Marengo Ave.
Altadena, CA 91001
626/794-3119
www.skeptic.com
skepticmag@aol.com
HOW WE BELIEVE
The Search for God in an Age of Science
By Michael Shermer
W. H. Freeman and Company
ISBN: 0-7167-3561-X
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE: THE GOD QUESTION A Moral Dilemma for Dr. Laura
Part I. God and Belief
CHAPTER 1. DO YOU BELIEVE IN GOD? The Difference in Our Answers and the Difference it Makes
CHAPTER 2. IS GOD DEAD? Why Nietzsche and Time Magazine Were Wrong
CHAPTER 3. THE BELIEF ENGINE How We Believe
CHAPTER 4. WHY PEOPLE BELIEVE IN GOD An Empirical Study on a Deep Question
CHAPTER 5. O YE OF LITTLE FAITH Proofs of God and What They Tell Us About Faith
Part II. Religion and Science
CHAPTER 6. IN A MIRROR DIMLY, THEN FACE TO FACE Faith, Reason, and the Relationship of Religion and Science
CHAPTER 7. THE STORYTELLING ANIMAL Myths, Morality, and the Evolution of Religion
CHAPTER 8. GOD AND THE GHOST DANCE The Eternal Return of the Messiah Myth
CHAPTER 9. THE FIRE THAT WILL CLEANSE Millennial Meanings and The End of the World
CHAPTER 10. GLORIOUS CONTINGENCY Gould's Dangerous Idea and the Search for Meaning in the Age of Science
SHORT BOOK SUMMARY
In his latest book, Michael Shermer offers a different perspective on
the God question. Rather than pondering "Does God Exist?" he asks,
"Why do People Believe in God?" From an impressive assemblage of
historical, biological, and social scientific data, he suggests that
the divine realm has emerged out of the evolutionary tendencies of
humans to create patterns, with God being the ultimate pattern. He
presents a challenge to thoughtful believers who already understand
the undeniable human element in the creation of religion. Do we
humans and the religious community encounter the Divine Who has drawn
us to Itself, or is it simply the case that we have created God as
the end product of our need to make sense of it all?
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Shermer is the publisher of Skeptic magazine, the director of
the Skeptics Society, the host of the Skeptics Lecture Series at
Caltech, and an adjunct professor at Occidental College. He is the
author of Why People Believe Weird Things (W. H. Freeman) that was
widely and positively reviewed and was on the Los Angeles Times
bestseller list as well as nominated as one of the top 100 notable
books of 1997. Dr. Shermer is also the author of Teach Your Child
Science (Contemporary Books, 1988) and co-authored Teach Your Child
Math and Mathemagics (Contemporary Books, 1990, 1993 with Arthur
Benjamin). His analysis and debunking of Holocaust denial can be
found in his book Denying History, co-authored with Alex Grobman
(University of California Press). Dr. Shermer is also the host of
"Science Talk" on Wednesdays from 6-7pm on KPCC, 89.3FM, the NPR
affiliate for Southern California.
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